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I’m not a stats guy so I can’t vouch for the superiority of the method, but today I took my chart listing the daily count of newly confirmed COVID cases in New Hampshire and added a 5-day moving average line. Each point on the red line line of the chart above is the average of new cases over the past 5 days, which are plotted on the black line.

5-day moving averages are common in many systems that chart things on a daily basis, like stocks, in order to smooth out day-to-day fluctuations and better show patterns. How significant it is here, I don’t know, but there are certainly daily fluctuations in our new-case count. Some are probably due to anomalies in testing and reporting of tests (e.g., Monday numbers tend to go up because weekend tests are slow to report) rather than reflections of changes in actual caseload.

The one lesson from the red line? New cases are still edging up, on average; despite that hopeful looking leap and fall earlier this month, the peak has yet to come.

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