One of the measures of population growth is “doubling time” – the time it takes for a population to double in size. I’ve been tracking the total number of COVD-related deaths in New Hampshire (as compared to the average daily number, which is what I’ve been tracking for cases and hospitalizations) so I thought I’d see how it is going. I started with 25 deaths because the early measurements were a little suspect.
Total deaths – date (# days to double)
25 – April 14
50 – April 23 (9 days)
100 – May 6 (14 days)
200 – May 22 (16 days)
400 – July 21 (60 days)
Pretty good, I’d say – although 400 deaths is a tragedy, of course.
Another way to look at population grown is amount of time it takes to add some particular number of cases. I started with 100 to avoid early data collection issues.
From 100 to 200 deaths: 2 1/2 weeks
From 200 to 300 deaths: 3 weeks
From 300 to 400 deaths: 6 weeks.
It took six times as long to add the most recent 100 deaths as it did to add the previous 100. If that keeps up it will be 36 weeks before we hit 500 deaths.
I wouldn’t count on that, however.
Here’s the Infogram chart I’ve made from the data if you want to look at it: https://infogram.com/covid-daily-deaths-1hxr4zvdylye2yo