One of the measures of population growth is “doubling time” – the time it takes for a population to double in size. I’ve been tracking the total number of COVD-related deaths in New Hampshire (as compared to the average daily number, which is what I’ve been tracking for cases and hospitalizations) so I thought I’d see how it is going. I started with 25 deaths because the early measurements were a little suspect.
Total deaths – date (# days to double)
25 – April 14
50 – April 23 (9 days)
100 – May 6 (14 days)
200 – May 22 (16 days)
400 – July 21 (60 days)
Pretty good, I’d say – although 400 deaths is a tragedy, of course.
Another way to look at population grown is amount of time it takes to add some particular number of cases. I started with 100 to avoid early data collection issues.
From 100 to 200 deaths: 2 1/2 weeks
From 200 to 300 deaths: 3 weeks
From 300 to 400 deaths: 6 weeks.
It took six times as long to add the most recent 100 deaths as it did to add the previous 100. If that keeps up it will be 36 weeks before we hit 500 deaths.
I wouldn’t count on that, however.
Here’s the Infogram chart I’ve made from the data if you want to look at it: https://infogram.com/covid-daily-deaths-1hxr4zvdylye2yo
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Not being a data giant. Shouldn’t the slope of the total cases(solid Red) decrease(flatten) more?
Starting in May 16 the 14 day cases have dropped off quite a bit?
A flat 14-day curve means mean the total cases are growing at a consistent rate (each new day is roughly equal to 15 days prior, which is “dropped”) – that means the curve for total cases is increasing by the same amount each day, or going up at a 45-degree angle. That’s what it roughly did until mid-June-ish, when it started to flatten as the 14-day tally dropped.
A rough parallel is speed and acceleration. (Or a function and its first derivative, if you remember calculus!) If your acceleration is constant over time that means your speed is continuing to increase at the same rate, not that your speed is leveling off