NH keeps growing slowly with a few hot (and cold) spots

See the interactive map at https://nhfpi.org/blog/lakes-and-mountains-lead-new-hampshires-population-growth-while-some-cities-shrink/

From NH Fiscal Policy Institute: New U.S. Census Bureau estimates indicate that while New Hampshire’s population grew by about 30,300 people (2.2 percent) between 2020 and 2024, that growth was not evenly distributed across municipalities. The Lakes Region and White Mountains saw some of the fastest population increases, likely driven by retirees and remote workers moving to the region, with towns like Brookfield, Tuftonboro, and Moultonborough growing at more than twice the statewide rate. Some of the state’s larger cities, including Durham and Berlin, lost residents, and several others, like Keene and Derry, experienced slight declines. This uneven population shift highlights broader challenges, including rising housing costs and limited child care, that may be deterring younger families from settling in the state.

From 2020 to 2024, 28 communities experienced population declines, while 85 grew more slowly than the state overall, and 119 had similar or faster growth rates. Twelve communities, comprised mostly of low-population townships in the northernmost part of the state, experienced no estimated population change.

Similarly to population trends from 2020 to 2023, New Hampshire’s fastest growing municipalities from 2020 to 2024 were centered around amenity-rich areas around the Lakes Region and White Mountains, as well as near centers of economic activity.

Ten out of 19 communities in Carroll County, comprising portions of both the Lakes Region and White Mountains, experienced population growth rates more than double that of the statewide rate, including Brookfield, which gained 67 people (8.9 percent), Tuftonboro (164 people, 6.6 percent), Moultonborough (306 people, 6.2 percent), Effingham (98 people, 5.8 percent), Wakefield (297 people, 5.7 people), Madison (146 people, 5.7 percent), Eaton (22 people, 5.4 percent), Ossipee (228 people, 5.2 percent), Sandwich (71 people, 4.8 percent), and Conway (451 people, 4.6 percent). While Carroll County remained the third-smallest county in terms of its population size in 2024, it experienced the fastest population growth among New Hampshire’s ten counties from 1990 to 2020.

Several other natural amenity-rich communities saw large population growth from 2020 to 2024, including Thorton (155 people, 5.7 percent), Sugar Hill (34 people, 5.2 percent), and Franconia (55 people, 5.1 percent) in the White Mountains, as well as Croydon (51 people, 6.3 percent), Newbury (116 people, 5.3 percent), and Springfield (66 people, 5.3 percent) in the Lake Sunapee region. Growth in these communities and across Carroll County may be due to retirees and working-age families moving into secondary homes, enabled in part by increased opportunities for remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some larger communities also experienced fast growth rates and gained more residents due to their relatively large population sizes. Communities adding more than 1,000 residents included Merrimack (2,532 people, 9.4 percent), Lebanon (1,081 people, 7.6 percent), Salem (1,385 people, 4.6 percent), Dover (1,126 people, 3.4 percent), and Rochester (1,077 people, 3.3 percent). Several towns outside of larger cities in southeastern New Hampshire also saw large growth rates, including Epping (645 people, 9.0 percent), Brentwood (282 people, 6.3 percent), and Dunbarton (173 people, 5.7 percent). Growth among New Hampshire’s larger cities and towns may be due to declining prevalence of fully-remote work, as more Granite Staters may be commuting to the metropolitan Boston area and other economic hubs in the southeastern part of the state.

Several of the state’s larger cities and towns had stagnant or declining populations from 2020 to 2024, including Durham (-287 people, -1.8 percent), Berlin (-158 people, -1.7 percent), Goffstown (-76 people, -0.4 percent), Derry (-18 people, -0.1 percent), and Keene (-10 people, -0.004 percent). Population growth occurred in the state’s two largest cities, Manchester (874 people, 0.8 percent) and Nashua (654 people, 0.7 percent), following declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. Increases in housing costs, including in larger cities, may be prompting more people to seek housing in more affordable environments further away from their workplaces.

The 2024 data showed the ten most populous communities in the state were Manchester (116,386), Nashua (91,851), Concord (44,674), Derry (34,062), Dover (33,909), Rochester (33,598), Salem (31,673), Merrimack (29,367), Londonderry (27,101), and Hudson (25,787). These communities are all located in the southeastern part of the state, and show the significance of southeastern New Hampshire, particularly the Merrimack River Valley, to New Hampshire’s population. About 1.044 million people, or 74.2 percent of the state’s population, lived in the four southeastern counties (Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford) in July 2024, and 752,895 (53.4 percent of the state’s population) lived in either Hillsborough County or Rockingham County.

New Hampshire has historically relied on in-migration to grow its population, as the number of deaths in the state has consistently outpaced the number of births since 2017. While the population has grown, high costs of living, low housing inventory, and challenges accessing child care may limit young professionals and families from moving into New Hampshire and helping to grow the Granite State economy.